March Madness preview: The favorites and the underdogs

Will there be a next great ‘Cinderella Story’ in this year’s March Madness bracket, or will the powerhouses take over?
Texas A&M CC Islander vs. Texas Southern Tigers. The first game of the 2022 NCAA D1 Mens Basketball tournament, featuring the Texas A&M Corpus Christie Islanders and the Texas Southern University Tigers.
Texas A&M CC Islander vs. Texas Southern Tigers. The first game of the 2022 NCAA D1 Mens Basketball tournament, featuring the Texas A&M Corpus Christie Islanders and the Texas Southern University Tigers.
The Duke Blue Devils and the Robert Morris Colonials jump it up to start their second round NCAA Tournament game in Charlotte
March Madness

March 17 is selection Sunday for the NCAA Men’s Basketball D1 Tournament (also known as March Madness). March Madness is where the 68 best Division 1 basketball teams in the nation get placed into a bracket with 5–6 rounds in a win-or-go-home scenario, with the winning school being crowned victorious on April 8. A few days before the games start, millions of fans try to create the perfect bracket.

The Duke Blue Devils and the Robert Morris Colonials jump it up to start their second round NCAA Tournament game in Charlotte (Photo by Sneakindeacon (Wikimedia Comonns))
The University of Connecticut is a top-contender in this years March Madness, especially after last years first-place finish. (Logo used per Fair Use guidelines via Wikipedia and the UCONN Logo Sheet)
University of Connecticut

Starting with the favorite to win it all this year, the 2023 Champions who are looking to defend their title, the University of Connecticut (UConn) is one of the favorites to win it all. UConn has been known as a great basketball school for winning five championships in their school’s history, and this season is no different.

The Huskies lost a couple of star players to the NBA Draft, including Jordan Hawkins, a sophomore last year and second on the team in points with 16.2 per game. Hawkins got drafted by the New Orleans Pelicans. Along with Hawkins is Adama Sanogo, who was the leading scorer and rebounder last year with 17.2 points and 7 rebounds per game. Sanogo got drafted by the Chicago Bulls in the 2023 NBA Draft.

Even with the absent stars from last season, UConn is still managing to win games and be one of the top-ranked teams week in and week out. The biggest star for the Huskies is Tristen Newton, who leads the team in points (15), assists (5), and rebounds (7). Newton is a senior who is in his 5th year of playing college basketball.

UConn has had a few major wins this season versus top-15-ranked teams like Gonzaga, UNC, and Texas, and two wins against Marquette. In these stretches of games, UConn looks like they could be the first team to go back-to-back since 2007—when the Florida Gators did it.

The University of Connecticut is a top-contender in this year’s March Madness, especially after last year’s first-place finish. (Logo used per Fair Use guidelines via Wikipedia and the UCONN Logo Sheet)
Another solid performer this year, the University of Houston is looking to dominate in March Madness brackets. (Photo courtesy of the University of Houston via Wikimedia Commons)
University of Houston

This year is the Houston Cougars‘ sixth consecutive year of being in the tournament. Of all their appearances, the lowest seed they have had was No. 6 (which was in 2018 when they lost to Michigan in the round of 32), but Houston has not yet been the team to cut down the net in April. Houston is the #1 seed in back-to-back years and is looking to make it further than last year when they were knocked out of the elite eight by the Miami Huricanes.

The Cougars have been near the top of the weekly rankings every week of the season as well as having a perfect record at home, which might be because Houston plays at a very slow pace of play compared to other teams in the tournament. When the Cougars get their opponent in an uncomfortable state in the game, they use that to their advantage, and it is hard for their opponents to overcome it. Houston has a very aggressive defense which allows the least amount of points per game in college basketball. It works perfectly with their conservative and efficient offense where they take care of the ball and put up a bunch of points.

Houston does not have just one star who helps them win games: everyone on the floor does one thing well, which makes them even more dangerous. Senior guard L.J. Cryer leads the team in points per game with 15, Jamal Shead in assists per game with 6, and J’Wan Roberts in rebounds with 7.

This Houston team looks similar to years prior with a 28-3 record to end the season. Also, wins against top teams in the nation like Iowa State, BYU, and Baylor, made them look like real contenders and a reason they are a top favorite to win it all.

 

Another solid performer this year, the University of Houston is looking to dominate in March Madness brackets. (Photo courtesy of the University of Houston via Wikimedia Commons)
The Boilermakers have some strong players, but their performances in prior tournaments has been filled with ups and downs. (Photo courtesy of Purdue University via Wikimedia Commons)
Purdue University

The Purdue Boilermakers are coming into the tournament with a 28-3 regular season record, and are looking to reclaim the first seed in the east quadrant of the bracket. But the Boilermakers are seeking a much different result than last year’s first-round exit when they lost to FDU. That loss in mid-March of last year has surely been stuck in all the players’ and fans’ heads ever since that fateful day. Now, the Boilermakers are going back to the tournament with one plan, and that is to win it all.

The big difference between last season’s Purdue team and this year’s is their 3-point shooting. Last year, Purdue was one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, but this year, their average is quite the opposite. Purdue is now the second-best three-point shooting team, shooting 40% from behind the arc.

Purdue’s key to a championship win is their top player, senior Zach Edey who stands at a staggering 7’4. Edey averages the second most points per game in the country with 24; he is third in rebounds with 11 per game, and 14th in field goal percentage with 62%, but that latter is mainly because most of his points are scored in the paint. Edey has only made one 3-pointer in his college career.

Outside Edey, another Boilermaker who had a great season is Braden Smith, who leads the team in assists with seven per game and averages 13 points per game. Smith is a spot-up shooter, making 45% of his threes, which makes him and Edey a dangerous one-two punch from anywhere on the floor.

This Boilermaker team has the star-studded talent on their roster to win it all, but underperforming in March has been a burden on them in the past. Can Purdue be the team lifting the tournament trophy and cutting down the net on April 8, or will it be another disappointing end of their season?

The Boilermakers have some strong players, but their performances in prior tournaments has been filled with ups and downs. (Photo courtesy of Purdue University via Wikimedia Commons)
 Virginia Commonwealth University students celebrate the mens basketball teams victory over Kansas in the 2011 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight.
Cinderella Stories

Typically, (at least) one college blows fans’ expectations out of the water: two years ago, the “Cinderella story” was St. Peters, making it to the Elite Eight as a No. 15 seed. St. Peters eventually lost to No. 8 seed North Carolina. Another Cinderella story in March Madness history was VCU in 2011 for being an 11 seed and making it to the final 4, but eventually being bounced out by Butler. Here are a few teams that are flying under people’s radar to look out for when making a March Madness bracket.

Virginia Commonwealth University students celebrate the men’s basketball team’s victory over Kansas in the 2011 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight. (Photo by Wikimedia Commons)
The Drake Bulldogs just might be that unexpected team that manages a deep run. (Photo courtesy of Drake University via Wikimedia Commons)
Drake University

The Drake Bulldogs are coming off a 27-6 regular season record and a Missouri Valley Conference Championship win over the Indiana State Sycamores, which means they are in the dance as an auto bid. Drake had two March Madness appearances in the past three years, but has not made it past the first round since 1971.

Head coach Darien DeVries won Missouri Valley Head Coach of the Year in back-to-back years in 2019 and 2020. The 2023-24 season was Drake’s sixth straight season, all under Devries, with 20 or more wins, and saw Drake go undefeated at home throughout the entire season.

The Bulldogs have been led this year by junior Tucker DeVries, the son of Darien. Tucker leads the team in average points per game with 21, assists per game with 4, and field goal percentage with 44%. He won the Larry Bird MVC Player of the Year on March 6 for the second year in a row.

The Bulldogs are 3-1 against quad-1 teams and can play with the best line-ups in the country. But due to the conference they are in, Drake does not normally play the highest competition. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs’ offensive and defensive efficiency are undoubtedly among the best, and can lead them to a deep run this spring.

The Drake Bulldogs just might be that unexpected team that manages a deep run. (Photo courtesy of Drake University via Wikimedia Commons)
Saint Marys College could be a real wild card this March and April. They might merit a spot on the bracket. (Photo courtesy of Saint Marys College via Wikimedia Commons)
Saint Mary’s College

The Saint Mary’s Gaels men’s basketball team represents the students of Saint Mary College in Moraga, California. The Gaels are coming off a 24-7 record and a West Coast Conference championship after taking down Gonzaga in the final on March 12. Saint Mary’s is a regular contender in March Madness, but has not made it past the second round since 2012. They have never actually won the tournament, either.

Yet, the Gaels are one of the most defensively sound teams in the country. Saint Mary’s is second in the nation in opponents’ points per game with 58. Also, teams that face Saint Mary’s shoot 40.4% from the field, which is the 14th lowest average in the country. Mitchell Saxen, a senior, leads the defense with 7.5 rebounds per game and 1 block per game.

Saint Mary’s offense is led by sophomore Aidan Mahaney who is a dynamic scorer and can be a difference maker in the tournament. Mahaney leads the team in points per game with 14 and field goal percentage with 39%. The Gaels are the 11th slowest-paced offense in the country, which is a gift when winning, but a curse when losing late in the game.

The Gaels’ tournament outcome will depend on how their defense plays. Coach Randy Bennett is in his 23rd year at Saint Mary’s, and his tenth March Madness appearance. The Gaels have proven they can beat top teams in the country, and it will be a treat to see what they can do in the dance.

Saint Mary’s College could be a real wild card this March and April. They might merit a spot on the bracket. (Photo courtesy of Saint Mary’s College via Wikimedia Commons)
McNeese State University might be a longshot, but anything can happen in a March Madness tournament. (Photo courtesy of McNeese State Athletics via Wikimedia Commons)
McNeese State University

A team and school that probably no one has heard of is McNeese State University, located in Lake Charles, Louisiana. The Cowboys have not made a March Madness appearance since 2002, when they lost to Mississippi State as a 14-seed, but they are looking to capitalize on their opportunity this year.

McNeese State is coming into the tournament off a 28-3 regular season and a Southland Conference championship. This is the best record and season in program history, a huge difference from last season when they went 11-23. In terms of overall record, McNeese has not had an above .500 season since 2011.

A big reason for the difference in their record this year is head coach Will Wade, who is in his first year of coaching at McNeese, but has previously coached at Chattanooga, VCU, and LSU. Wade has made McNeese State a defensive powerhouse.

When it comes to opponents’ point average per game, the Cowboys are fourth in the country, letting up 61, and third in the nation in turnover margin with it being 7 to 1. Shahada Wells is a player who has helped the Cowboys throughout the season, and is looking for a big month in March.

Wells is a sixth-year, 6’0 guard who transferred from TCU over the last off-season to make McNeese State his home. Wells uses his speed and his small size to his advantage. He scores 69% of his points at the rim with a 75% success rate. Wells leads the team in points per game with 17, assists per game with 4, steals per game with 3, and field goal percentage by shooting 48%.

The McNeese State Cowboys are a real threat to every team in the bracket and could be the newest chapter in the book of March Madness Cinderella stories.

McNeese State University might be a longshot, but anything can happen in a March Madness tournament. (Photo courtesy of McNeese State Athletics via Wikimedia Commons)
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  • Carlos AllenMar 19, 2024 at 11:09 am

    Marquette is scary especially with Tyler Kolek coming back, hopefully at 100%. They can make it to the final 4 but they have a tough region with Kentucky, Duke and Houston but we will see.

  • Mr. AielloMar 19, 2024 at 10:42 am

    Solid upset picks. Watch out for Marquette going to the final four (not a huge upset, as they are a 2 seed. But, still would not deem a “mainstream” pick)

  • YandelMar 14, 2024 at 9:51 pm

    I really love your article Carlos, hmu later 🙂