#1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4) VS #4 Houston Texans (10-7)
On Saturday, January 20, the Baltimore Ravens (13-4) will host the Houston Texans (10-7) as the #1 seed. Last week, rookie C.J. Stroud had one of the best first performances for a first playoff game. He completed 16 passes on 21 attempts for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns. Stroud led the Texans to a 45-14 win over the Cleveland Browns.
The Houston defense also looked really solid. The defense forced Joe Flacco into 2 interceptions while also returning both for touchdowns. They also held the Browns run game to 56 yards on 20 carries, averaging 2.8 yards per carry. The Browns have a strong run game along with the Ravens. The Texans defense also recorded 4 sacks last week, which helped them force Flacco into throwing those interceptions. Although the Texans just played really well, it was at home, and they struggled on the road. They allow 6 more points per game, and score 7 less points per game away from home.
Lamar Jackson is the heavy favorite to win MVP this season as he led the Ravens to a 13-3 record when he played. In 16 games, he threw for 3,678 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He also ran for 821 yards and had 5 rushing touchdowns. Even after his great season, Jackson has struggled in the playoffs. He made the playoffs in 3 seasons, but has a 1-3 record. He has been favored to win in 3 of the 4 games. The Ravens’ offense is also averaging 6 more points per game while playing at home, and their defense is allowing 6 less points per game at home. The Ravens are 9.5 point favorites, and should win this game even with Jackson’s playoff struggles. This game should be closer than expected, but the Ravens will come out on top.
#3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) AT #2 Buffalo Bills (11-6)
At 5:30 PM CT on Sunday the 21st, the Chiefs (11-6) will head into Buffalo to take on the Bills (11-6). This is the first time Patrick Mahomes has ever played on the road in a playoff game – unless it was the Super Bowl. This is also the third time in the last four years that the Bills have played Chiefs in the playoffs, except the Bills had to travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. The other 2 games, the Chiefs have won. The Bills have won 7 of their last 8 games and have been playing extremely well. Last week, Josh Allen completed 21 passes on 30 attempts for 203 yards and 3 passing touchdowns. He also ran for 74 yards and a touchdown leading to a 31-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Chiefs come into this game winning 4 of their last 5 games. They are also playing well, but the last time they played the Bills, they lost 20-17 in Kansas City. In the wild card round, Patrick Mahomes completed 23 passes on 41 attempts for 262 yards and a touchdown; he also ran for 41 yards on 2 carries. The Chiefs also ran for 147 yards. They beat the Miami Dolphins 26-7 and held them to 275 total yards. Their defense also had 2 sacks and 1 interception. This game will come down to the end and is really hard to pick. The Bills have a slight advantage with Josh Allen protecting the ball extremely well in the playoffs. The Bills have a slightly better chance at winning this game because they have more weapons on offense.